Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Nerd alert!

One of the great stats to look at in the NHL is goal differential. For example in the Eastern Conference every team with a positive goal differential is currently in possession of a playoff spot while every team with a negative differential is on the outside looking in. Things are not so tidy in the Western Conference where Calgary is +9 and in a tie for 10th place in the conference and St. Louis is +5 and eliminated from contention while Anaheim at -3 currently holds onto 7th place. Of course Anaheim is only two points ahead of Calgary with three games to play so stay tuned.

It is interesting to note (interesting to me, not you, sorry) that the team with the worst goal differential is Edmonton at -68 and not coincidentally they are the team with the worst record in the whole league. At the other end of the spectrum is Vancouver who has already wrapped up the President's Trophy and has a whopping +71 (!!!) goal differential. Excuse me as collect myself for the moment as I have just simultaneously spit water all over my keyboard and jizzed in my pants. The jizz thing is probably unrelated to this post. Anyway that gaudy differential is nearly double the closest competitor in the Western Conference, San Jose at +38, and far out-distances the top mark in the Eastern Conference, Boston at +49. This just underlines what a great season Vancouver has put together and why they will be the presumptive favorite heading into the playoffs.

Looking ahead to the run for Lord Stanley's cup, Boston's +49 differential suggests greater success than the 3 seed they are all but assured to ride into the playoffs. It compares favorably to any of the bottom three teams in the playoff picture who will all jockey for position over the season's final weekend. Conversely current conference top dog Washington has a relatively pedestrian +25 differential that stands as merely the fifth best mark in the conference, a full 10 goals worse than the current 8 seed, the New York Rangers. The Rangers at +35 compare favorably to all of the top teams except Boston and should be a trendy pick for a first round upset unless they slot into 6th seed and face off against the Bruins.

In the Western Conference the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks hold a tenuous two point lead over Dallas and Calgary despite a +31 differential that sits as the third best mark in the conference. Assuming they make the tournament look for them to potentially knock off a top seed, unless that top seed is Vancouver. I will put together a full playoff preview complete with inaccurate predictions next week once the final seeding is determined.

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